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As per our consensus, considering various growth catalysts and risk factors, the target price for NSE's unlisted shares is projected to reach ₹2,000 in 2025. This outlook is supported by a 51% YoY increase in operating revenue in Q1 FY25, along with a profit margin of 52%. The company’s diversified revenue streams, spanning trading, clearing, technology services, and international expansion in market data and analytics, serve as key growth drivers. Additionally, NSE has renewed its efforts to go public, with an estimated size of ₹47,500 crore. Its dominant market share, 93% in the cash segment and near monopoly in currency futures and options—further reinforces its strategic position. These combined factors contribute to the upward momentum in the valuation of its unlisted shares.
The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) has renewed its efforts to launch a long-awaited public offering by reapplying for a "no-objection" certificate from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). If approved, the IPO could be one of India's largest, with plans to sell a 10% stake, potentially raising around ₹47,500 crore (approximately $5.7 billion), based on its current valuation of ₹4.75 lakh crore. On the regulatory front, SEBI has been actively engaged in discussions with NSE to ensure that all governance structures meet the highest standards before the IPO. These efforts are set to strengthen the exchange’s position and increase investor confidence as it prepares for a public listing. In a positive development, NSE is working closely with SEBI to finalize the best path forward for the derivatives market. Although NSE had originally planned to shift its weekly expiry to Monday, the proposal has been deferred following SEBI’s consultation paper.
NSE India remains a strong blue-chip investment with a defensive yet growth-oriented profile. Its core business remains stable, supported by market infrastructure and innovation in financial technology. Investors appreciate its consistent performance and diversified streams of income, making it well-suited for conservative portfolios with a tilt towards long-term growth.
Systematic Risk: Exposure to global market volatility and regulatory interventions. Competitive Risk: Facing competition from both local and international exchanges. Operational Risk: Reliance on technology systems which require consistent upgrades.
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